Cercando documenti in proposito nel web mi sono imbattuto in una serie di inerventi su A.net di "Widebodyphotog", una persona che sa di cosa parla.
Siccome sono discorsi puntuali e quantitativi e non il consueto tifo da stadio per A o per B, mi sono permesso di farne un collage e postarlo qui sotto per tutti gli interessati.
E' un po' lungo da leggere, ma penso ne valga la pena. Per riassumere parla dei costi operativi su una tipica rotta ultralunga, del mercato freighter, della questione pax e payload, del caso di SQ (che ha detto solo che per ora non intende comprare il 77L), della possibilità niente affatto antieconomica di usare tali macchine su rotte lunghe dove aerei come il 772ER hanno restrizioni, e infine del 345HGW.
Marco
Quoting NA:
The 772LR is a great plane, but it isn´t the best thing since the invention of sliced bread. And its prohibitively expensive to buy.
Prohibitively expensive to buy? It's only prohibitively expensive if you can't fill the seats. The difference in price between the A340-500 and 777-200LR can be made up in 3 years or less on lower operating costs and increased revenue potential. Much quicker if operators can negotiate for lower prices and better finance deals. Furthermore the argument about the market for A380 is not weather the market exists or not it's about the size of that market and that is arguable on specific terms. But really who cares how many orders 777-200LR has relative to A380. There's no comparison in mission, capacity, or market.
Why is it highly unlikely that 777 production will continue past 2020? Is that your independent marketing analysis? Who is the "idiot" that has done that analysis? It's very easy to see and understand the way 777 production will go. Production will continue with passenger aircraft until it is eclipsed by a newer more efficient generation of aircraft, which by the way is a long way off as Boeing will continually improve the 777 with lighter materials and more efficient systems. Towards the end of the passenger production the main focus will be on the freighter version, and as with 747 towards the end of it's useful life as a passenger carrier, the freighter model(s) will constitute the bulk of the remaining production. The 777 freighter is a big leap over the MD-11 in terms of efficiency and range, and without an entirely new cross-section Airbus can not make a freighter of similar capacity and efficiency using the A340/A330 fuselage/airframe. Airbus is not planning a competitor to the 777 freighter and the freighter potential for the A340 line is very limited. The 777 is holding all the cards for the future of it's market segment, both freighter and passenger, so the marketing potential for 777 is assured for the foreseeable future. That's what the marketing people at Boeing have taken into consideration when analyzing the market, and I happen to think those "idiots" have a pretty good bead on the way things are.
Quoting Airbazar:
I'll make it quick. No! The 772LR doesn't open up any relevant new routes as compared to the A345, and at a much higher cost (including ETOPS requirements), it makes no sense unless you intent to carry lots of cargo.
You won't see a 772LR in SQ's fleet until Boeing can figure out a way to put 4 engines in it SIN-LAX with 2 engines? I don't think so. They don't need the extra capacity. Their entire product is based on having fewer seats and extra leg room, not more seats and less leg room.
What in the world!? Much higher costs? Does not make sense unless you carry a lot of cargo? Trip cost relative to A345 on the SIN-EWR route will be about 18% lower and the aircraft will be able to add more than a hundred passengers plus substantially higher cargo load. The 777-200LR would use 25% less fuel on that route and the weight of the fuel saved is the entire available Westbound payload of the Boeing, 75-85,000lbs! Also, more than 35% of SIA total revenues come from their cargo business so that revenue is very important to them. Operating the 777-200LR EWR-SIN would effectively double the available total payload vs A340-500.
The advantage in revenue potential on lower cost of operation is enormous and the operation costs are much less. The 777's wider cabin allows better use of the available floor area on the 777-200LR. ETOPS maintenance requirements add minimum cost to the operation relative to the increased revenue potential. Notwithstanding the fact that the 777-200LR can fly the same route as A340-500, SIN-EWR-SIN without restriction, at a faster speed, using ETOPS 180, arriving 20-30 minutes sooner. I think the DVT scaredy-cats would appreciate that...
About the SIA product:
I'll quote a post that I made a few month's ago based on a cabin layout analysis using the 777-200LR done by myself and the people I work for:
As regarding cabin space:
The way to do seating is to scale seating space based on available floor area not cabin length. In point of fact the 777-200LR cabin length is 164'-6" and A340-500 cabin length is 175'-9", but the 777's wider cabin allows for more effective floor space utilization.
I came up with a more realistic cabin for an SQ 777-200LR using our 777-200 cabin CAD models:
66 J Class 28" wide SpaceBed seats (A345 seats are 26") at 64" pitch 2-2-2
136 Executive Economy Y Class 20" wide seats at 37" pitch 2-4-2
Total 202 seats preserving the passenger snack and lounge areas.
Being more creative with seating yields a 216 seat configuration if you make a 3-class arrangement with 102 18.5" wide 37" pitch seats in Economy (3-3-3), 48, 20" wide 37" pitch seats in Executive Economy (2-3-2), and 66 28" SpaceBed Seats at 64" pitch (2-2-2).
The bottom line is that the 777-200LR has more potential revenue space in the cabin and payload is sufficiently increased to allow full utilization of below deck space as well.
As one can see when using SIA's comfort level there is a more than 20 seat advantage for the Boeing without sacrificing space (actually the size of the seats can be larger). There is no compromise on passenger comfort with the increased number of seats potentially available.
Let us not forget the usefulness of 777 on shorter range operation:
When used at a "B" or lower takeoff weight the -200LR offers significant field performance increase over -200ER in less than ideal conditions. You may not need the absolute range, but the ability to get off the ground from hot, high, and shorter runway airports with significantly higher payloads is a particular advantage for -200LR, and it can do so with minimum increase in operating cost vs -200ER and less cost than the alternative Airbus. Even on C market routes where Westbound payloads are limited, ie. East Coast NA to Asia, with current -200ER's, the -200LR is an attractive option for maximizing potential revenues while maintaining pax capacity. The potential is there for a lot of market penetration, but it does remain to be seen if the operators will "bite".
Quoting Angelairways (reply 72):
You seem to be quite knowledgeable about the 777 product line. Could you please provide some well sourced figures and calculations to prove this statement, stating all your assumptions.
I'm not trying to argue but I find your claim interesting because 3 years seems like a small amount of time to me... I would have though it would take at least 5 years or more of intense flying for the benefits to start outweighing the initial costs... but of course you may prove me wrong...
Easy enough to do just by using published info:
Price difference A340-500 to 777-200LR: 3-20.8mil
FUEL SAVINGS:
Fuel savings SIN-LAX 6000USg X $1.30/USg = $7,812 X 183 days = $1.430mil
Fuel savings LAX-SIN 6800USG X $1.30/USg = $8,840 X 182 days = $1.609mil
INCREASED REVENUE:
Increased cargo cap: SIN-LAX = 10,000Kgs X 3.75/Kg X 183 days = $6.86mil
Increased cargo cap: LAX-SIN = 3,000Kgs X 1.25/Kg X 182 days = $.683mil
Increased Pax cap: 21 pax X 80% L/F X net yield $475 X 365 days = $2.95mil
Trying to keep this very simple without leaving too much out...
Fuel savings based on Boeing per hour fuel burn rates for 777-200LR and A340-500 fuel burn from SIA ops surveys. Cargo revenue figures from current market yields on SIN-LAX-SIN route and believe me SQ is no cut-rate freight operator. Increased pax cap and revenue based on my own cabin space analysis of a possible SQ 777-200LR and actual SQ economy class net yields SIN-LAX-SIN.
Starting with the price of the aircraft:
Again trying to keep this simple, you factor in that at least two aircraft are required to run a daily flight SIN-LAX-SIN. The price difference for two aircraft is 6-$41.6mil.
The simple segment breakdown is for a years continuous operation for two aircraft. The total estimated fuel savings for one year amounts to $3.039mil. Increased cargo Revenue comes out to $7.543mil and Increased net passenger revenue amounts to $2.95mil. Adding up the savings and increased revenue figures comes out to $13.53mil/year and dividing that into the high price difference comes out to 3.07 years to make up the difference in purchase price.
Now this is a very crude analysis without even factoring in difference in maintenance cost requirements, more detailed passenger yields based on class of service, Lower landing fees, possible turn-around time savings, and aircraft finance terms. But I think the point is made pretty clearly.
The A340-500HGW is nothing new and Airbus had planned to increase the MTOW to 380t for some time now. They even publish the proposed specs and performance for the Aircraft on the website. Bottom line though, if it's produced will only widen the operating cost disparity between 777-200LR and the A340-500. It will have a structure that is 65,000lbs heavier than 777-200LR for nearly the same cabin floor area and less structural payload capability. And it will burn more fuel, (17-22% more), for a given segment while flying at a slightly slower speed. IMO I don't think there will be much interest in acquiring the 340-500HGW by anyone once the 777-200LR demonstrates it performance potential. The differences in payload/range/cost performance will be pretty dramatic and the operating numbers are just too far apart to make the A340-500HGW a logical choice. Then again many times those choices aren't made on logic...